The markets are powering forward so far in 2017.Optimism prevails.However the memory of 10 years ago when all seemed well and yet we were perched on the precipice of a complete market meltdown lingers.July 2007 is when the great unravelling began:A collectively experienced post-traumatic stress incident.
The corollary reaction, the desire to sidestep the “Next Big One”, is understandable.I admit that looking back on the recent past my caution of late has been misplaced.Hindsight; it always looks clear in hindsight.It is a flaw in human nature to see the inevitable in retrospect and feel that we were such fools to not see “it” coming.And of course some prognosticator always does “see it” and we marvel at their perspicacity, simultaneously feeling bad for our own lack thereof.The big tech bust of 2000-3 and the real estate & financial meltdown of 2007-8 are so obvious, so clearly ordained to happen.Except they weren’t.There is no certain way things will be until they actually happen:The 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 occurred in the middle the tech bust and had their own, far reaching, influences on future events.
On the other hand there is predictability if you are willing to forgo timing.The market will have a downturn of 10%, 15%, 20%, perhaps more.This is a certainty.When this will happen is the variable.Three months from now; three years from now?After the market has moved up another 25%, 50% from where it is today?This is what we don’t know.However, this does not mean there is no defense, or actions that can be taken.Now would be a good time to evaluate your portfolio in relation to how you feel – your risk tolerance as it’s known.Maybe it has changed and we should make adjustments.
Please get in touch if you would like.Always glad to hear from you and sit down for a chat.Thank you for your continued business.It is deeply appreciated.Sincere regards,